bunhill/E+ via Getty Images Bank of America analyst Craig Siegenthaler on Wednesday raised first-quarter earnings per share estimates for U.S. exchanges CME (NASDAQ:CME)
, Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), Tradeweb Markets (NASDAQ:TW)
and Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ)
on the basis of robust trading volumes amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "The invasion has disrupted global commodity markets, which has contributed to volatility and rising volumes across most asset classes," Siegenthaler wrote in a note to clients. "Given the long-term impact of sanctions as well as the newfound interest in reducing Western dependence on Russian energy, we anticipate higher energy prices and contract volumes on an ongoing basis." The analyst hiked CME's (CME) Q1 EPS estimate to $2.02 from $1.89 vs. the $1.94 consensus. Boosted Intercontinental Exchange's (ICE) Q1 EPS estimate to $1.48 from $1.44, compared with $1.41 expected. Lifted Tradeweb's (TW) Q1 EPS estimate to $0.44 from $0.41 vs. $0.46 consensus. And slightly increased Nasdaq's (NDAQ) Q1 EPS estimate to $2.00 from $1.99 vs. $1.93 expected. Tradeweb (TW) and Nasdaq (NDAQ) will likely benefit from the "second derivative impact of higher commodity prices on corporations and global interest rates," the analyst noted. CME (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) could also benefit from the risk of an energy/agriculture supply disruption. On a YTD basis, CME (CME) outpaces its peers, eking out a gain of 0.7%, looking at the chart here. Note that CME's average daily volume jumped 19% in February, highlighted by Chicago wheat options and SOFR futures. Tradeweb's (TW) ADV grew 11% in the same month and Intercontinental Exchange's ADV climbed 15%. Earlier in March, Nasdaq removed all Russian securities from its indexes.
NDAQ TW ICE CME